UCSD and the International Network for Sustainable Development (INFORSE) as part of the East African Civil Society for Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Project (2019 -2022) have prepared Uganda's 100% Renewable Energy Scenario and Plan by 2050
The Plan provides a general overview of the Ugandan situation regarding energy supply and demand, and presents a scenario for how Uganda can move into a 100% renewable energy economy in 2050 and also move from a lower income country into an upper middle income country while sustainably harnessing its biomass resources along with other renewable energy sources.
In the Plan, a basic analysis of the current total energy demand and supply patterns for Uganda is shown. Secondly a renewable energy scenario; universal access to modern energy services by 2030 (Sustainable Energy For ALL) is elaborated. Thirdly, a course of action is proposed which outlines how Uganda can contribute to the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 through its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC).
Within Uganda’s NDC, a focus on energy through introduction of improved biomass cook stoves and biogas is already highlighted. As part of securing a more ambitious NDC in line with the Paris Agreement, Uganda needs to take this to another level, through scaling up adoption of improved biomass cook stoves as well as their efficiency through Research and Development efforts.
The Plan underscores that for Uganda, achieving universal energy access is as important as achieving a 100% renewable energy production target. It also recognizes that to be sustainable, the renewable energy solutions presented must address poverty and other social needs as outlined in Agenda 2030 / Sustainable Development Goals.
In both the 100% renewable energy in 2050 and the BAU scenarios developed with the INFORSE model and the Energy Plan model, fossil fuel in the form of oil continues to fuel the transport sector and increasingly the industry sector. Another larger difference between the 100% renewable energy scenario and the BAU scenario is that in the 100% renewable energy scenario, 25% of cooking is made with highly efficient electric pressure cookers in 2050, which is not the case in the BAU scenario. While in the BAU scenario, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels (though small today) will continue to grow, in the 100% renewable energy scenario, they will gradually be reduced until 2050.